Election musing
It’s that time again, the always-interesting month before the presidential elections in Taiwan, a time when all sorts of interesting and unlikely things tend to occur. Right now we’re in the DPP-is-behind-with-little-hope-of-winning phase. Shortly thereafter, it would seem we’ll all sit back and enjoy the protest-drama stage, followed by tea and cakes on the veranda.
What’s a little unusual this time around is just how far behind the DPP is, the seemingly counter-intuitive negative campaigning of the DPP, as well as the lack of ill-advised campaigning on the KMT’s part. All of these were surprises to me, as the DPP has shown itself to be much better at running campaigns in the past than it’s been showing these days, and the KMT has always run clumsy, ineffective campaigns in the past. However, this time it seems that Hsieh is spending all of his time digging through Ma’s past and coming up with allegations that his wife stole newspapers from a school library when she was a student or that his sister cheated on a test in college. He’s been warning against electing a KMT president as the KMT already dominates the legislature. I’ve heard many deep-blues criticize Ma for not attacking Hsieh. To me, however, one of the most encouraging things about Ma is the disdain the more radical elements of the KMT show for him.
And then there’s the whole green-card issue, which is really a non-issue. Even AIT has posted statements reminding people of what everyone already knows, i.e. that green cards do actually expire if you don’t use them, but Hsieh’s response to such statements basically amounts to LALALALAI’MNOTLISTENINGLALALA. The fact that Hsieh is continuing to harp on this issue despite poll after poll, even those by pro-independence organizations, indicating people just don’t care about it, is suspect.
I realize that that sounds a bit mean of me to say. The reason I’m suspicious, however, is because that’s just what happened when Hsieh was elected Kaohsiung Mayor. Just before the election an audiotape was released containing a rather indelicate conversation between a female reporter and Hsieh’s opponent, incumbent mayor Wu Den-yih, who was ahead in the polls at the time. By the time the tape was discovered to be fake, Hsieh was safely ensconced in the mayor’s office, and an underling took the fall. So such an action wouldn’t be without precedent.
The DPP’s 2/28 rally was lackluster and didn’t draw the huge crowds that could have turned the tide for the DPP. Everyone was expecting Hsieh to walk all over Ma in the first debate, but the opposite was the case, to many’s surprise, including my own. That couldn’t be a very confidence-inspiring performance for Hsieh, and there’s no telling if the DPP is harboring any desperate measures for a last-ditch push. All that’s left for the DPP, media-wise, is the events they are planning the week before the election to commemorate China’s anti-secession law of three years ago. It was hugely successful for them in 2005, but I’m wondering if people can be motivated to care that much about it today. It’s their last chance for publicity, though, so I’m expecting them to make as good a show of it as they possibly can.
Another interesting thing is what former President Lee Teng-hui said recently, namely, that if the DPP were not elected, it would put Taiwan back 20 years. On the surface, it sounds like he’s stumping for the DPP, even though he has also said Taiwan elected the wrong person (Chen) in 2000. But if you think about it, why did he choose 20 years, not 30 or 50, back during the martial law era? In reality, Lee himself was president 20 years ago, and things were looking up, politically, economically and socially. As I recall, it was a time of optimism, social order and steady economic development. In any case, Lee’s influence is on the wane, and I’m not sure his endorsement would make much of a difference either way.
In any case, there’s only a few weeks left. Whatever the DPP has planned for its “come-from-behind” strategy, it had better be good. Everyone’s waiting.
your LTH analysis is quite interesting. I haven’t heard that one before. The DPP are now pulling out all the ‘Yellow hordes’ scare tactics on the talk shows now, trying to say that Taiwan will be sunk into the sea by the sheer weight of mainlanders who will come here if Ma wins.
Comment by Prince Roy — March 5, 2008 @ 11:45 am
I think your “Bizarre Event” theory says a lot more about the KMT than it does about the DPP. It seems that whenever the KMT loses an election they seek to blame it on some external event. The party cannot accept losing as a result of a normal electoral process. Furthermore it cannot look at itself critically to understand the reasons for its failure.
I take LTH’s comment at its face value. Ma would certainly not bring back martial law, but a KMT victory would once again make Taiwan a state dominated by one party with the opposition party in a marginal position.
Comment by David on Formosa — March 5, 2008 @ 7:54 pm
David, my Bizarre Event theory wasn’t necessarily directed solely at the DPP. James Soong’s antics in 2000 could only be described as bizarre, as were Lee Teng-hui’s coy hints to dump his own party’s candidate and vote for Chen. But there’s no denying that each time we’ve seen some pretty crazy stuff happen. As for losing the election, we haven’t yet seen a DPP reaction to such a situation. This time we may just find out; in that case I hope that DPP supporters ignore “take to the streets” comments by their leaders and take it in a mature and reasonable fashion.
I’m wondering whether, if the DPP had won a majority in the legislative elections, whether Hsieh would be saying, “Don’t vote for me, we can’t have a system dominated by one party.” Now he’s arguing for what comes across as a continuation of the current situation, but I’m not sure how well that will sell.
Comment by Poagao — March 5, 2008 @ 9:14 pm
I guess I can no longer consider your interesting theory. I think the term he used was 延緩 which means delay or postpone. If he had actually used the verb ‘set back’, then maybe. This is a stretch though.
Comment by Prince Roy — March 6, 2008 @ 1:11 pm
Or defer or stay. In any case, it depends on what he thinks of the situation then vs. the situation now. Lee’s speeches are always filled with interesting turns of phrase that make people think, I’ll give him that.
Comment by Poagao — March 6, 2008 @ 9:21 pm
I’ve been thinking about this for quite some time now, asking myself if I myself would ever vote for the KMT. More and more, I’m thinking the answer might be yes.
Both parties aggravate me, but the DPP’s antics and politicking are pretty sad.
Comment by Robert — March 7, 2008 @ 7:11 pm
An election day eve assassination attempt against a presidential candidate is a bizarre event no matter how you shake it. Only the most rabid deep green would claim the DPP wouldn’t have complained if Lian Zhan had come from behind to win after being shot right before election day.
Poagao said:
This is probably the best theory I’ve seen so far. Hsieh’s probably got something up his sleeve. And it’s probably something with a very limited shelf life.
Comment by Mark — March 18, 2008 @ 3:48 pm
Wow. Hsieh really didn’t have anything left for the end. I can’t believe this election was such a rout!
Comment by Mark — March 22, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
Yes, it was a surprise for me, too. Much of this election has been a surprise to me. I still think that Hsieh could have run a much better campaign than he did, and that Su would probably have made a better front man. The DPP just ran a very negative race and Hsieh didn’t make himself out to be very presidential. The DPP’s campaign strategy, if it can be called that, is probably the most bizarre aspect to the 2008 election I can point to.
Comment by Poagao — March 22, 2008 @ 12:16 pm